All matches

Krasnodar — Baltika Kaliningrad, Russian Premier League

Russia, Russian Premier League

Krasnodar
3.5DDDWW
—
Baltika Kaliningrad
2.0LDLWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
60%25%15%
Krasnodar60%Draw25%Baltika Kaliningrad15%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Krasnodar60%1.68—
XDraw25%3.98—
2Baltika Kaliningrad15%6.50—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.87

No46%

ours 2.15

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKrasnodarBaltika KaliningradCombined
Goals scored0.671.171.84
Conceded0.501.001.50
Corners7.510.89.1
Cards2.52.85.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

KrasnodarBaltika Kaliningrad

FK Krasnodar 60%, FK Baltika Kaliningrad 15%. The safest is “FK Krasnodar or draw” at 78%.

FK Krasnodar 60%Draw 25%FK Baltika Kaliningrad 15%
1st half
38 · 39 · 23
2nd half
38 · 40 · 23
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Krasnodar

  • awayOrenburg0:0
  • homeAkron Togliatti1:1
  • awayKrylia Sovetov2:2
  • homeRostov1:0
  • awayMakhachkala1:0

Baltika Kaliningrad

  • homeZenit2:3
  • awayFakel Voronezh2:2
  • homeLokomotiv Moskva0:1
  • awayRodina Moskva3:0
  • homeRubin Kazan1:1

Head to head

  • 04/19/26Russian Premier League2:2
  • 11/09/25Russian Premier League1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Krasnodar963014:721
2Spartak Moscow961216:719
3CSKA Moscow954015:919
4Dinamo Moskva961214:819
5Zenit960319:918
6Rubin Kazan926112:1112
7Makhachkala940515:1612
8Baltika Kaliningrad932414:1211
9Krylia Sovetov925213:1411
10Akhmat Grozny924313:1310

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.