Kairat — Irtysh Pavlodar, Premier League

Kazakhstan, Premier LeagueOctober 18 at 01:00 PM

Kairat

3.3DWLLW

Irtysh Pavlodar

1.5LLWWL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

82%12%

Kairat82%Draw12%Irtysh Pavlodar6%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Kairat82%1.23—

XDraw12%8.09—

2Irtysh Pavlodar6%16.61—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 1.98

No50%

ours 2.02

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Combos — with Premium

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Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1869 matches

Corners

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1865 matches

Cards

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1856 matches

Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

KairatIrtysh Pavlodar

FK Kairat Almaty 82%, FK Irtysh Pavlodar 6%. The safest is “FK Kairat Almaty or draw” at 91%.

FK Kairat Almaty 82%Draw 12%FK Irtysh Pavlodar 6%

1st half

59 · 32 · 9

2nd half

56 · 33 · 11

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 5.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKairatIrtysh PavlodarCombined

Goals scored1.501.002.50

Conceded1.001.172.17

Corners7.58.37.9

Cards1.72.23.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.