Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.86
No46%
ours 2.16
All matches
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Irtysh Pavlodar — Ordabasy, Kazakhstan Premier League
Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan Premier League
Irtysh Pavlodar
1.6WWLWL
Ordabasy
2.8WWLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
22%23%54%
Irtysh Pavlodar22%Draw23%Ordabasy54%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Irtysh Pavlodar4.50—
XDraw4.27—
2Ordabasy1.84—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricIrtysh PavlodarOrdabasyCombined
Goals scored0.670.831.50
Conceded0.330.330.66
Corners7.511.09.3
Cards1.51.32.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Irtysh PavlodarOrdabasy
FK Irtysh Pavlodar 22%, FK Ordabasy Shymkent 54%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
FK Irtysh Pavlodar 22%Draw 23%FK Ordabasy Shymkent 54%
1st half
29 · 39 · 32
2nd half
23 · 38 · 39
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 5.5
69%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Irtysh Pavlodar
- awayAltay2:1
- homeOkzhetpes Kokshetau2:1
- awayZhetysu Taldykorgan0:1
- homeAktobe2:1
- homeTobol0:2
Ordabasy
- awayAtyrau3:0
- homeAstana1:0
- awayOkzhetpes Kokshetau1:2
- homeKyzyl-Zhar Petropavlovsk3:0
- homeAltay3:1
Head to head
- 03/07/26Kazakhstan Premier League2:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Ordabasy26194351:1861
Ordabasy26194351:18612
Kairat26176351:2057
Kairat26176351:20573
Astana25146542:2548
Astana25146542:25484
Okzhetpes Kokshetau26136741:3545
Okzhetpes Kokshetau26136741:35455
Aktobe26126838:3142
Aktobe26126838:31426
Yelimay25108735:3338
Yelimay25108735:33387
Tobol261041233:3534
Tobol261041233:35348
Zhenys26881026:3232
Zhenys26881026:32329
Ulytau Zhezkazgan26881024:3232
Ulytau Zhezkazgan26881024:323210
Caspiy26851327:3629
Caspiy26851327:362911Irtysh Pavlodar25681126:3426
Irtysh Pavlodar25681126:342612
Kyzyl-Zhar Petropavlovsk26671328:3925
Kyzyl-Zhar Petropavlovsk26671328:392513
Kaisar Kyzylorda264121022:3324
Kaisar Kyzylorda264121022:3324Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.