All matches

Trinec — Kladno, FNL

Czech Republic, FNL

Trinec
LWLLD
—
Kladno
DDLWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
36%26%38%
TrinecMarket 2.3536%DrawMarket 3.1626%KladnoMarket 2.6338%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Trinec36%43%2.782.35-6.6
XDraw26%32%3.803.16-5.3
2Kladno38%38%2.652.63-0.3

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.91book 1.57

No48%

ours 2.10book 2.20

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos: result and total

Two events in one forecast. The model scores them together, from the probability of every scoreline — so the link between them is built in: when the home side is stronger, a win and plenty of goals tend to come together.

Combos come with a subscription: probability, fair odds and the market comparison for all 24 combinations.

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Combos: result and corners

The result comes from the goals model, corners from the corners model. The link between them is measured on 66,000 played matches: the winning side usually takes fewer corners, because the team chasing the game does the crossing. The market has no ready line for these combinations, so «Market» here is a parlay of two separate bets: the result and the corners total.

Corner combos come with a subscription: probability and fair odds for all 48 combinations.

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricTrinecKladnoCombined
Goals scored1.171.672.84
Conceded2.171.834.00
Corners9.811.310.6
Cards1.70.52.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

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69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

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69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

TrinecKladno

FK Fotbal Třinec 36%, SK Kladno 38%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

FK Fotbal Třinec 36%Draw 26%SK Kladno 38%
1st half
22 · 41 · 37
2nd half
37 · 37 · 26

Bookmakers: 2.35 · 3.16 · 2.63

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

71%1.30
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context

Trinec

  • awayViktoria Zizkov0:3
  • homeMFK Karviná3:2
  • awayVlasim1:2
  • homeBanik Ostrava U211:4
  • awayOpava2:2

Kladno

  • homePribram2:2
  • awayTaborsko3:3
  • awayMFK Karviná0:2
  • homeViktoria Zizkov3:0
  • awayProstejov1:3

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
8Vlasim933317:1412
9Banik Ostrava U21932415:1211
10Kladno924313:1410
11Opava924313:1510
12Viktoria Zizkov93158:1610
13Arsenal Ceska Lipa923410:169
14Prostejov915311:128
15Trinec914410:177
16Kromeriz91358:196

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.