All matches

Auda Riga — FS Jelgava, Virsliga

Latvia, Virsliga

Auda Riga
2.6DWDWD
—
FS Jelgava
0.9LDLWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
63%23%15%
Auda Riga63%Draw23%FS Jelgava15%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Auda Riga63%1.60—
XDraw23%4.43—
2FS Jelgava15%6.76—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.89

No47%

ours 2.12

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAuda RigaFS JelgavaCombined
Goals scored0.670.000.67
Conceded0.500.330.83
Corners11.78.310.0
Cards2.31.74.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Auda RigaFS Jelgava

FK Auda Riga 63%, FS Jelgava 15%. The safest is “FK Auda Riga or draw” at 83%.

FK Auda Riga 63%Draw 23%FS Jelgava 15%
1st half
45 · 36 · 19
2nd half
41 · 39 · 20
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Auda Riga

  • homeRFS1:1
  • homeOgre United1:0
  • awayRiga2:2
  • homeGrobina1:0
  • homeSuper Nova1:1

FS Jelgava

  • homeRiga0:1
  • awayGrobina0:0
  • homeSuper Nova0:1
  • awayTukums4:1
  • awayOgre United3:2

Head to head

  • 08/09/26Virsliga1:0
  • 06/13/26Virsliga1:1
  • 04/21/26Virsliga3:2
  • 09/27/25Virsliga1:1
  • 07/05/25Virsliga2:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1RFS30235271:2274
2Riga31227286:3073
3Auda Riga31187649:3061
4Liepaja311271241:4343
5Daugavpils311091235:3539
6Super Nova301051529:4035
7FS Jelgava31881532:4932
8Grobina315111521:5226
9Tukums31591744:6124

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.