Both teams to score
Yes51%
ours 1.95
No49%
ours 2.05
All matches
—
Atyrau — Irtysh Pavlodar, Kazakhstan Premier League
Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan Premier League
Atyrau
1.2LLWLL
Irtysh Pavlodar
1.6WWLWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
41%28%32%
Atyrau41%Draw28%Irtysh Pavlodar32%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Atyrau2.45—
XDraw3.63—
2Irtysh Pavlodar3.16—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAtyrauIrtysh PavlodarCombined
Goals scored0.170.670.84
Conceded0.670.501.17
Corners11.39.710.5
Cards2.02.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AtyrauIrtysh Pavlodar
FK Atyrau 41%, FK Irtysh Pavlodar 32%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.
FK Atyrau 41%Draw 28%FK Irtysh Pavlodar 32%
1st half
31 · 42 · 27
2nd half
34 · 41 · 26
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 10.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Atyrau
- homeOrdabasy0:3
- awayKaisar Kyzylorda0:1
- awayKyzyl-Zhar Petropavlovsk1:0
- homeAstana2:3
- homeOkzhetpes Kokshetau0:2
Irtysh Pavlodar
- awayAltay2:1
- homeOkzhetpes Kokshetau2:1
- awayZhetysu Taldykorgan0:1
- homeAktobe2:1
- homeTobol0:2
Head to head
- 03/16/26Kazakhstan Premier League1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9
Ulytau Zhezkazgan26881024:3232
Ulytau Zhezkazgan26881024:323210
Caspiy26851327:3629
Caspiy26851327:362911Irtysh Pavlodar25681126:3426
Irtysh Pavlodar25681126:342612
Kyzyl-Zhar Petropavlovsk26671328:3925
Kyzyl-Zhar Petropavlovsk26671328:392513
Kaisar Kyzylorda264121022:3324
Kaisar Kyzylorda264121022:332414Atyrau254111018:2823
Atyrau254111018:282315
Altay26581325:3823
Altay26581325:382316
Zhetysu Taldykorgan26571426:4422
Zhetysu Taldykorgan26571426:4422Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.