Astana 2:2 Caspiy, Premier League

Kazakhstan, Premier League18 October at 14:00Match finished

Astana

2.9DWLWL

2:2HT 1:2

Caspiy

1.8DWWLL

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Pre-match forecastpublished 18 October at 12:34

67%19%14%

AstanaMarket 1.2767%DrawMarket 5.7019%CaspiyMarket 9.5514%

Line-upsAstana4-2-3-1—Caspiy4-2-3-1

Starting line-ups and substitutes. Usually out about an hour before kick-off.

Astana4-2-3-1Caspiy4-2-3-1

74Seisen11Vorogovskiy5Kazukolovas6Kasym2Bartolec15Beysebekov8Bašić72Basmanov9Islamkhan10Tomasov81Karimov24Dinmukhammed19Taykenov30Morgado14Amaral21Aripov23Nabikhanov15Epton11Ndombasi17Klimovich26Sedko93Sylla

Astana4-2-3-1

Starting XI

74GKMukhammejan Seisen
2DFKarlo Bartolec
6DFAlibek Kasym
5DFKipras Kazukolovas
11DFYan Vorogovskiy
8MFIvan Bašić
15MFAbzal Beysebekov35′60′
10MFMarin Tomasov26′
9MFBauyrzhan Islamkhan60′
72MFStanislav Basmanov59′
81FWRamazan Karimov74′

Substitutes

93GKJosip Čondrić
99GKDanila Karpikov
4DFSanzhar Anuarov
45DFIvan Miladinović
77DFDmitriy Shomko
7MFDinmukhamed Karaman60′
17MFDamir Marat59′
21MFAlexander Merkel68′74′
47MFMaksat Abraev
20FWNnamdi Ahanonu
29FWNikola Burić60′
71FWAnuar Tolendi

Caspiy4-2-3-1

Starting XI

24GKZhomart Dinmukhammed
21DFDierzhon Aripov49′
14DFAndré Amaral71′
30DFBernardo Morgado
19DFMaksat Taykenov
15MFDavid Epton23′83′
23DFAmandyk Nabikhanov
26MFPavel Sedko90+3′
17MFVladislav Klimovich90+3′
11MFNoha Ndombasi64′
93FWKeba Sylla35′64′

Substitutes

1GKNurlybek Ayazbaev
49GKJan Andrin
4DFErlan Kadyrbaev
27DFDanila Nechaev
67DFMeyrambek Kalmyrza
7MFBekzat Kabylan90+3′
10MFIdris Umaev64′
13MFMeyrambek Serikbay83′
16MFAyan Baydavletov
9FWRamazan Abylaykhan64′

Match stats

How the match went in numbers.

0.85xG0.46

69Possession, %31

2Shots2

2Shots on target2

10Corners0

1Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

14Fouls9

0Offsides1

How the forecast did

In each market the forecast is one outcome: the most likely one before kick-off.

2 of 3

Main markets landedresult, half, totals, both to score

All forecast markets: landed 190 of 258void — 1

Match result Missed
Astana67%
Actual: Draw — we had 19%
Total goals Landed
Over 2.559%
Both teams to score Landed
Yes53%

The bar is our pre-match probability. The other outcomes in a market are not picks but the probability split: one of home, draw, away always happens.

Model vs market

Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Astana67%74%1.491.27-6.6

XDraw19%16%5.215.70+2.7

2Caspiy14%10%7.289.55+3.9

our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed

Form and context

Astana

homeCaspiy2:2
awayIrtysh Pavlodar1:0
awayTobol1:2
homeKairat1:0
awayOrdabasy0:1

Caspiy

awayAstana2:2
homeAltay2:1
awayZhetysu Taldykorgan1:0
homeAktobe1:2
homeKairat0:3

Head to head

10/18/26Premier League2:2
05/03/26Premier League0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts

1

Ordabasy28214358:2067

2

Kairat28196357:2063

3

Astana28157646:2952

4

Okzhetpes Kokshetau28146842:3748

5

Aktobe28136942:3545

6

Yelimay28128840:3844

7

Tobol281241239:3840

8

Ulytau Zhezkazgan28981127:3435

9

Caspiy28961331:3933

10

Zhenys28881229:3832

11

Kyzyl-Zhar Petropavlovsk28771430:4028

Full breakdown

Every market of the forecast published before the match.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with Premium

Every pick of the day, full match analysis, scenarios and combos.

Already have an account? Sign in

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.