Both teams to score
Yes50%
ours 2.01
No50%
ours 1.99
All matches
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FK Arsenal Tula — FK Chelyabinsk, FNL
Russia, FNL
FK Arsenal Tula
LDLDL
FK Chelyabinsk
DWDLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
42%29%29%
FK Arsenal Tula42%Draw29%FK Chelyabinsk29%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FK Arsenal Tula2.39—
XDraw3.44—
2FK Chelyabinsk3.44—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFK Arsenal TulaFK ChelyabinskCombined
Goals scored0.500.501.00
Conceded0.830.331.16
Corners8.011.59.8
Cards2.50.53.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
FK Arsenal TulaFK Chelyabinsk
FK Arsenal Tula 42%, FK Chelyabinsk 29%. The safest is “FK Arsenal Tula or draw” at 72%.
FK Arsenal Tula 42%Draw 29%FK Chelyabinsk 29%
1st half
34 · 41 · 25
2nd half
31 · 49 · 20
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: Home or draw
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
FK Arsenal Tula
- awayFK Yenisey Krasnoyarsk1:3
- homeFK SKA-Khabarovsk2:2
- awayFK Volga Ulyanovsk0:3
- homeFK Ural2:2
- awayVeles Moskva0:2
FK Chelyabinsk
- homeFK Yenisey Krasnoyarsk1:1
- homeFK Ufa2:1
- awayFK KAMAZ Naberezhnye Chelny1:1
- homeFK Spartak Kostroma0:1
- awayFK Sochi1:2
Head to head
- 04/22/26FNL0:0
- 10/19/25FNL2:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10
FK Volga Ulyanovsk1342716:1914
FK Volga Ulyanovsk1342716:191411
FK Yenisey Krasnoyarsk1235415:2014
FK Yenisey Krasnoyarsk1235415:201412FK Arsenal Tula1234512:2213
FK Arsenal Tula1234512:221313
FK Leningradets Leningradskaya Oblast1234510:2013
FK Leningradets Leningradskaya Oblast1234510:201314FK Chelyabinsk1233613:1912
FK Chelyabinsk1233613:191215
FK Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk124087:1512
FK Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk124087:151216
FK KAMAZ Naberezhnye Chelny1223711:199
FK KAMAZ Naberezhnye Chelny1223711:199Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.