Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk — Dnepr Mogilev, Vysheyshaya Liga

Belarus, Vysheyshaya LigaOctober 25 at 11:00 AM

Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk

1.4LDDLL

—

Dnepr Mogilev

0.8LDLDD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

43%25%32%

Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk43%Draw25%Dnepr Mogilev32%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk43%2.33—

XDraw25%3.93—

2Dnepr Mogilev32%3.17—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.76

No43%

ours 2.31

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricArsenal DzyarzhynskDnepr MogilevCombined

Goals scored0.670.671.34

Conceded1.671.172.84

Corners8.312.510.4

Cards2.52.04.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Arsenal DzyarzhynskDnepr Mogilev

FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 43%, FC Dnepr Mogilev 32%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

FK Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 43%Draw 25%FC Dnepr Mogilev 32%

1st half

34 · 40 · 26

2nd half

31 · 35 · 34

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context