Aktobe — Ordabasy, Premier League

Kazakhstan, Premier LeagueOctober 17 at 02:00 PM

Aktobe

2.4WDWWL

Ordabasy

3.0WWWLW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

28%27%45%

Aktobe28%Draw27%Ordabasy45%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Aktobe28%3.62—

XDraw27%3.65—

2Ordabasy45%2.22—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.77

No44%

ours 2.29

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Combos — with Premium

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Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1869 matches

Corners

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1865 matches

Cards

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1856 matches

Lines for goals, corners and cards — with Premium

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

AktobeOrdabasy

FK Aktobe 28%, FK Ordabasy Shymkent 45%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

FK Aktobe 28%Draw 27%FK Ordabasy Shymkent 45%

1st half

27 · 44 · 29

2nd half

22 · 36 · 42

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Away or draw

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAktobeOrdabasyCombined

Goals scored1.832.504.33

Conceded1.170.671.84

Corners10.09.59.8

Cards3.22.05.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.