All matches

Aktobe — Kairat, Kazakhstan Premier League

Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan Premier League

Aktobe
2.3DWWLW
—
Kairat
3.1LLWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
28%25%47%
Aktobe28%Draw25%Kairat47%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Aktobe28%3.52—
XDraw25%4.00—
2Kairat47%2.15—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.78

No44%

ours 2.28

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAktobeKairatCombined
Goals scored1.000.171.17
Conceded0.830.831.66
Corners9.311.010.1
Cards3.01.54.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

AktobeKairat

FK Aktobe 28%, FK Kairat Almaty 47%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

FK Aktobe 28%Draw 25%FK Kairat Almaty 47%
1st half
29 · 39 · 32
2nd half
29 · 38 · 33
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Aktobe

  • homeUlytau Zhezkazgan2:2
  • awayCaspiy2:1
  • homeZhenys1:0
  • awayIrtysh Pavlodar1:2
  • awayKaisar Kyzylorda2:1

Kairat

  • awayAstana0:1
  • homeTobol1:4
  • homeZhenys3:0
  • awayCaspiy3:0
  • awayYelimay2:0

Head to head

  • 03/16/26Kazakhstan Premier League0:1
  • 09/14/25Kazakhstan Premier League0:1
  • 05/30/25Kazakhstan Premier League1:2
  • 10/04/24Kazakhstan Premier League2:1
  • 04/20/24Kazakhstan Premier League3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Ordabasy26194351:1861
2Kairat26176351:2057
3Astana25146542:2548
4Okzhetpes Kokshetau26136741:3545
5Aktobe26126838:3142
6Yelimay25108735:3338
7Tobol261041233:3534

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.