All matches

Feyenoord — Fortuna Sittard, Eredivisie

Netherlands, Eredivisie

Feyenoord
3.0WWLWD
—
Fortuna Sittard
1.7WLWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
74%18%
Feyenoord74%Draw18%Fortuna Sittard8%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Feyenoord74%1.35—
XDraw18%5.48—
2Fortuna Sittard8%13.30—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.79

No44%

ours 2.26

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFeyenoordFortuna SittardCombined
Goals scored0.830.831.66
Conceded0.001.171.17
Corners9.08.08.5
Cards2.02.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

FeyenoordFortuna Sittard

Feyenoord Rotterdam 74%, Fortuna Sittard 8%. The safest is “Feyenoord Rotterdam or draw” at 93%.

Feyenoord Rotterdam 74%Draw 18%Fortuna Sittard 8%
1st half
55 · 31 · 14
2nd half
53 · 31 · 16
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 2.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Feyenoord

  • homeUtrecht5:0
  • awayPEC Zwolle7:0
  • awayBarcelona1:5
  • awayNEC Nijmegen3:1
  • homeADO Den Haag2:2

Fortuna Sittard

  • awayWillem II1:0
  • homeAjax1:5
  • awayADO Den Haag3:2
  • awayGroningen3:2
  • homeAZ Alkmaar0:2

Head to head

  • 05/03/26Eredivisie2:1
  • 09/17/25Eredivisie2:0
  • 04/12/25Eredivisie2:0
  • 11/30/24Eredivisie1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1AZ Alkmaar761018:619
2Feyenoord752025:717
3PSV751124:1016
4Twente751115:716
5Ajax742121:914
6Fortuna Sittard741213:1413
7Excelsior732215:911
8Groningen732215:1311

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.