All matches

Ferencvaros — Paks, NB I

Hungary, NB I

Ferencvaros
3.8DWDWW
—
Paks
2.4WLDWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
58%24%19%
Ferencvaros58%Draw24%Paks19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Ferencvaros58%1.73—
XDraw24%4.22—
2Paks19%5.36—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes62%

ours 1.62

No38%

ours 2.61

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFerencvarosPaksCombined
Goals scored0.170.670.84
Conceded0.170.831.00
Corners10.015.012.5
Cards2.01.73.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freeSign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

FerencvarosPaks

Ferencvárosi TC 58%, Paksi FC 19%. The safest is “Ferencvárosi TC or draw” at 79%.

Ferencvárosi TC 58%Draw 24%Paksi FC 19%
1st half
42 · 37 · 21
2nd half
41 · 35 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

Sign in

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 2.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Sign in

Form and context

Ferencvaros

  • awayNyiregyhaza Spartacus1:1
  • awayCeltic3:1
  • homeUjpest2:2
  • awayETO Gyor3:0
  • awayPuskas Akademia2:1

Paks

  • awayKisvarda1:0
  • homeDebrecen2:4
  • awayNyiregyhaza Spartacus1:1
  • homeUjpest2:0
  • awayPuskas Akademia2:3

Head to head

  • 07/26/26NB I2:4
  • 04/26/26NB I2:0
  • 02/01/26NB I1:0
  • 10/05/25NB I2:2
  • 05/10/25NB I3:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Vasas842217:1114
4Ujpest842217:1314
5Ferencvaros733111:812
6Paks832316:1711
7MTK Budapest823315:149
8Kisvarda82339:109

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.