All matches

Ferencvaros — MTK Budapest, NB I

Hungary, NB I

Ferencvaros
3.8DWDWW
—
MTK Budapest
1.6LLDWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
65%22%13%
Ferencvaros65%Draw22%MTK Budapest13%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Ferencvaros65%1.54—
XDraw22%4.64—
2MTK Budapest13%7.46—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.65

No40%

ours 2.53

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFerencvarosMTK BudapestCombined
Goals scored0.671.001.67
Conceded0.331.171.50
Corners12.011.311.6
Cards2.02.54.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

FerencvarosMTK Budapest

Ferencvárosi TC 65%, MTK Budapest FC 13%. The safest is “Ferencvárosi TC or draw” at 83%.

Ferencvárosi TC 65%Draw 22%MTK Budapest FC 13%
1st half
48 · 35 · 16
2nd half
41 · 34 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 2.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Ferencvaros

  • awayNyiregyhaza Spartacus1:1
  • awayCeltic3:1
  • homeUjpest2:2
  • awayETO Gyor3:0
  • awayPuskas Akademia2:1

MTK Budapest

  • homeETO Gyor1:2
  • homeKisvarda1:2
  • awayDebrecen2:2
  • homeNyiregyhaza Spartacus2:1
  • awayUjpest1:1

Head to head

  • 02/23/26NB I3:1
  • 11/01/25NB I4:1
  • 07/26/25NB I1:1
  • 04/27/25NB I3:2
  • 02/02/25NB I0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Vasas842217:1114
4Ujpest842217:1314
5Ferencvaros733111:812
6Paks832316:1711
7MTK Budapest823315:149
8Kisvarda82339:109
9Debrecen823312:159

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.