All matches

Ferencvaros — Debrecen, NB I

Hungary, NB I

Ferencvaros
3.8DWDWW
—
Debrecen
1.9LWDDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
62%23%15%
FerencvarosMarket 1.2662%DrawMarket 5.3523%DebrecenMarket 7.9515%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Ferencvaros62%79%1.621.26-17.5
XDraw23%19%4.335.35+4.4
2Debrecen15%13%6.647.95+2.5

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.75book 1.58

No43%

ours 2.33book 2.21

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFerencvarosDebrecenCombined
Goals scored2.501.674.17
Conceded0.832.333.16
Corners10.513.712.1
Cards2.02.24.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

FerencvarosDebrecen

Ferencvárosi TC 62%, Debreceni VSC 15%. The safest is “Ferencvárosi TC or draw” at 83%.

Ferencvárosi TC 62%Draw 23%Debreceni VSC 15%
1st half
46 · 36 · 17
2nd half
40 · 37 · 23

Bookmakers: 1.26 · 5.35 · 7.95

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 5.5

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Ferencvaros

  • awayNyiregyhaza Spartacus1:1
  • awayCeltic3:1
  • homeUjpest2:2
  • awayETO Gyor3:0
  • awayPuskas Akademia2:1

Debrecen

  • homeVasas2:4
  • awayPaks4:2
  • homeMTK Budapest2:2
  • awayKisvarda0:0
  • homeETO Gyor1:1

Head to head

  • 04/05/26NB I2:0
  • 12/14/25NB I0:1
  • 08/31/25NB I3:0
  • 03/09/25NB I1:0
  • 12/05/24NB I4:5

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Vasas842217:1114
4Ujpest842217:1314
5Ferencvaros733111:812
6Paks832316:1711
7MTK Budapest823315:149
8Kisvarda82339:109
9Debrecen823312:159
10Nyiregyhaza Spartacus82249:148
11Kispest-Honved713311:146

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.