All matches

Fenerbahce — Liverpool, UEFA Champions League

Europe, UEFA Champions League

Fenerbahce
3.7WDDLW
—
Liverpool
3.3WDWWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
18%22%61%
Fenerbahce18%Draw22%Liverpool61%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Fenerbahce18%5.57—
XDraw22%4.64—
2Liverpool61%1.65—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.74

No42%

ours 2.35

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

Sign up

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFenerbahceLiverpoolCombined
Goals scored0.000.000.00
Conceded0.000.000.00
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freeSign in

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

FenerbahceLiverpool

Fenerbahçe 18%, Liverpool FC 61%. The safest is “Liverpool FC or draw” at 82%.

Fenerbahçe 18%Draw 22%Liverpool FC 61%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

Sign in

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Sign in

Form and context

Fenerbahce

  • homeEyupspor8:0
  • awayGaziantep0:0
  • homeRoma1:1
  • homeBesiktas1:2
  • awaySamsunspor2:0

Liverpool

  • awayBournemouth1:0
  • homeFulham0:0
  • homeAtletico Madrid2:1
  • awayIpswich Town2:0
  • homeNottingham Forest2:2

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Sabah960318:1118
2Fenerbahce74309:415
3Levski Sofia843110:715
4Slovan Bratislava742111:1014
5Hapoel Be'er Sheva640210:812
6Dinamo Zagreb632114:911
7Bodo/Glimt531112:1110
8Avan Academy63039:89
9Kairat63035:49
10Kauno Zalgiris62226:108
11AEK Athens32105:07
12Universitatea Craiova42117:47
13KI Klaksvik42114:37
14Vikingur Reykjavik42115:57
15Red Star Belgrade42029:36
16Egnatia413012:76
17Sturm Graz42026:36
18Shamrock Rovers42027:66
19Celje613210:106
20AGF Aarhus42027:106
21Larne42023:106
22Iberia 199941216:75
23Lincoln Red Imps41214:55
24Lyon41126:54
25Viking31116:64
26Mjallby41124:44
27NEC Nijmegen41123:74
28PSG11006:13
29Bayern Munich11005:03
30Barcelona11005:13
31Manchester United11004:03
32Como11004:13
33Stuttgart11003:13
34Sporting CP11003:13
35Manchester City11002:03
36Real Betis11003:23
37Lens11003:23
38Aston Villa11003:23
39Borussia Dortmund11003:23
40Liverpool11002:13
41Real Madrid11002:13
42Arsenal11001:03

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.