FC Verbroedering Dender Eendracht Hekelgem — Club Brugge II, First Division B

Belgium, First Division BOctober 9 at 06:00 PM

FC Verbroedering Dender Eendracht Hekelgem

0.9WWWWW

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Club Brugge II

DDLWW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

59%25%17%

FC Verbroedering Dender Eendracht Hekelgem59%Draw25%Club Brugge II17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Verbroedering Dender Eendracht Hekelgem59%1.71—

XDraw25%4.08—

2Club Brugge II17%5.90—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes37%

ours 2.68

No63%

ours 1.59

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Verbroedering Dender Eendracht HekelgemClub Brugge IICombined

Goals scored1.332.003.33

Conceded0.331.672.00

Corners10.58.09.3

Cards1.71.53.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

This market opens with a subscription.

70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

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69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

FC Verbroedering Dender Eendracht HekelgemClub Brugge II

FC Verbroedering Dender Eendracht Hekelgem 59%, Club Brugge KV II 17%. The safest is “FC Verbroedering Dender Eendracht Hekelgem or draw” at 83%.

FC Verbroedering Dender Eendracht Hekelgem 59%Draw 25%Club Brugge KV II 17%

1st half

32 · 49 · 19

2nd half

51 · 39 · 10

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context