Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.74
No42%
ours 2.36
All matches
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FC Südtirol — AC Cesena, Serie B
Italy, Serie B
FC Südtirol
WDWDW
AC Cesena
DDDWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
48%27%25%
FC Südtirol48%Draw27%AC Cesena25%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Südtirol2.09—
XDraw3.67—
2AC Cesena4.02—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFC SüdtirolAC CesenaCombined
Goals scored0.830.501.33
Conceded0.330.500.83
Corners12.08.510.3
Cards2.53.05.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
FC SüdtirolAC Cesena
FC Südtirol 48%, AC Cesena 25%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
FC Südtirol 48%Draw 27%AC Cesena 25%
1st half
34 · 38 · 28
2nd half
41 · 37 · 22
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: Home or draw
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
FC Südtirol
- awayUnione Sportiva Arezzo4:1
- homeModena FC1:1
- homeCatanzaro Calcio 20112:0
- awayBenevento Calcio1:1
- homeACD Virtus Entella1:0
AC Cesena
- awaySS Juve Stabia1:1
- homeUS Cremonese2:2
- homeMantova FC1:1
- awayACD Virtus Entella2:1
- homeUC Sampdoria1:1
Head to head
- 04/06/26Serie B1:1
- 10/25/25Serie B0:1
- 04/05/25Serie B1:1
- 11/03/24Serie B0:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
US Città di Palermo541010:513
US Città di Palermo541010:5132FC Südtirol53209:311
FC Südtirol53209:3113
Mantova FC532010:511
Mantova FC532010:5114
Modena FC53118:410
Modena FC53118:4105
Ascoli Picchio FC 189853117:410
Ascoli Picchio FC 189853117:4106
Hellas Verona FC521210:77
Hellas Verona FC521210:777
US Avellino52127:67
US Avellino52127:678AC Cesena51407:67
AC Cesena51407:679
Benevento Calcio52126:57
Benevento Calcio52126:5710
AC Pisa 190952128:87
AC Pisa 190952128:87Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.