FC Stade Nyonnais — FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, Challenge League

Switzerland, Challenge LeagueNovember 6 at 06:30 PM

FC Stade Nyonnais

LLLDL

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FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

DWWWD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

17%20%63%

FC Stade Nyonnais17%Draw20%FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy63%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Stade Nyonnais17%6.04—

XDraw20%4.90—

2FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy63%1.59—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.81

No45%

ours 2.24

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Stade NyonnaisFC Stade Lausanne-OuchyCombined

Goals scored0.331.001.33

Conceded2.000.002.00

Corners7.39.08.2

Cards0.33.03.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches

Corners

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69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches

Cards

This market opens with a subscription.

69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

FC Stade NyonnaisFC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

FC Stade Nyonnais 17%, FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 63%. The safest is “FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy or draw” at 86%.

FC Stade Nyonnais 17%Draw 20%FC Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 63%

1st half

26 · 38 · 37

2nd half

15 · 34 · 51

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context