Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.75
No43%
ours 2.34
All matches
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Schalke 04 — RB Leipzig, Bundesliga
Germany, Bundesliga
Schalke 04
2.4DWDLW
RB Leipzig
2.4LWLLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
35%26%39%
Schalke 0435%Draw26%RB Leipzig39%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Schalke 042.87—
XDraw3.89—
2RB Leipzig2.54—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSchalke 04RB LeipzigCombined
Goals scored0.500.000.50
Conceded0.170.330.50
Corners9.315.012.2
Cards1.33.04.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Schalke 04RB Leipzig
FC Schalke 04 35%, Rasen Ballsport Leipzig 39%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
FC Schalke 04 35%Draw 26%Rasen Ballsport Leipzig 39%
1st half
29 · 39 · 32
2nd half
31 · 39 · 30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Schalke 04
- homeElversberg0:0
- awayUnion Berlin3:1
- homeBayern Munich0:0
- awayAugsburg0:3
- homeEintracht Braunschweig1:0
RB Leipzig
- awayBayer Leverkusen0:2
- homeHamburger SV5:0
- awayComo1:4
- awayWerder Bremen1:3
- homeBorussia Monchengladbach3:0
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7
Elversberg42118:77
Elversberg42118:778
Werder Bremen42118:87
Werder Bremen42118:879RB Leipzig42029:56
RB Leipzig42029:5610
Eintracht Frankfurt41219:105
Eintracht Frankfurt41219:10511Schalke 0441213:45
Schalke 0441213:4512
Paderborn41123:54
Paderborn41123:5413
Koln41126:94
Koln41126:94Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.