Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.75
No43%
ours 2.33
All matches
—
Salzburg — AC Milan, UEFA Europa League
Europe, UEFA Europa League
Salzburg
2.6WWDWW
AC Milan
2.8WLDDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
30%26%44%
Salzburg30%Draw26%AC Milan44%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Salzburg3.37—
XDraw3.85—
2AC Milan2.25—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricSalzburgAC MilanCombined
Goals scored2.331.333.66
Conceded0.500.831.33
Corners10.27.28.7
Cards1.81.63.4
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
SalzburgAC Milan
FC Salzburg 30%, AC Milan 44%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
FC Salzburg 30%Draw 26%AC Milan 44%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 4.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Salzburg
- homeSturm Graz3:0
- awayLevski Sofia1:0
- awayRied1:1
- homeRapid Vienna5:1
- homeAustria Vienna4:1
AC Milan
- homeLecce3:0
- homeBenfica0:2
- awayLazio2:2
- awayJuventus1:1
- homeVenezia2:0
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Benfica751121:616
Benfica751121:6164
Anderlecht751115:616
Anderlecht751115:6165Salzburg54109:313
Salzburg54109:3136
CSKA Sofia83239:1111
CSKA Sofia83239:11117
Lech Poznan531115:610
Lech Poznan531115:6108
Jagiellonia531110:510
Jagiellonia531110:5109
Omonia53117:410
Omonia53117:41010
OFI33007:09
OFI33007:0911
Maccabi Tel Aviv43019:49
Maccabi Tel Aviv43019:4912
Qarabag42206:08
Qarabag42206:0813
PAOK42027:66
PAOK42027:6614
Hradec Kralove42024:36
Hradec Kralove42024:3615
Hajduk Split42025:66
Hajduk Split42025:6616
Universitatea Craiova41214:45
Universitatea Craiova41214:4517
Egnatia41127:64
Egnatia41127:6418
Paphos41127:64
Paphos41127:6419
Lillestrom31113:34
Lillestrom31113:3420
Avan Academy31113:54
Avan Academy31113:5421
Iberia 199941123:74
Iberia 199941123:7422
Thun41127:124
Thun41127:12423
Sheriff41121:64
Sheriff41121:6424
Juventus11005:03
Juventus11005:0325
Crystal Palace11004:03
Crystal Palace11004:0326
Sparta Prague11004:13
Sparta Prague11004:1327
Union Saint-Gilloise11003:03
Union Saint-Gilloise11003:0328
Bayer Leverkusen11002:03
Bayer Leverkusen11002:0329
Bournemouth11002:13
Bournemouth11002:1330
Lyon11002:13
Lyon11002:1331
Olympiakos11002:13
Olympiakos11002:1332
Torreense11002:13
Torreense11002:1333
Sunderland11001:03
Sunderland11001:0334
Red Star Belgrade21014:53
Red Star Belgrade21014:5335
Sint-Truiden21013:43
Sint-Truiden21013:4336
Zilina21012:33
Zilina21012:3337
Viktoria Plzen31025:73
Viktoria Plzen31025:7338
Shamrock Rovers21014:63
Shamrock Rovers21014:6339
Vikingur Reykjavik21013:53
Vikingur Reykjavik21013:5340
Kauno Zalgiris21011:33
Kauno Zalgiris21011:3341
St. Gallen21012:63
St. Gallen21012:6342
U Cluj20200:02
U Cluj20200:0243
Dynamo Kyiv40222:52
Dynamo Kyiv40222:5244
Hapoel Be'er Sheva10100:01
Hapoel Be'er Sheva10100:0145
Sturm Graz10100:01
Sturm Graz10100:0146
Rennes10100:01
Rennes10100:0147
Dinamo Zagreb10100:01
Dinamo Zagreb10100:0148
Twente20113:41
Twente20113:4149
KuPS20112:31
KuPS20112:3150
Rangers20112:31
Rangers20112:3151
Lincoln Red Imps20111:21
Lincoln Red Imps20111:2152
Larne20111:21
Larne20111:2153
Gornik Zabrze20111:21
Gornik Zabrze20111:2154
Aluminij20110:11
Aluminij20110:1155
Hammarby20112:41
Hammarby20112:4156
Hearts20112:71
Hearts20112:7157
Real Sociedad10011:20
Real Sociedad10011:2058
Levski Sofia10010:10
Levski Sofia10010:1059
AZ Alkmaar10010:10
AZ Alkmaar10010:1060
Celta Vigo10010:10
Celta Vigo10010:1061
Derry City20023:50
Derry City20023:5062
Celtic10011:30
Celtic10011:3063
Celje10010:20
Celje10010:2064
Hoffenheim10010:20
Hoffenheim10010:2065AC Milan10010:20
AC Milan10010:2066
Marseille10011:40
Marseille10011:4067
Tromso20021:40
Tromso20021:40Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.