Both teams to score
Yes51%
ours 1.95
No49%
ours 2.05
All matches
—
Progres Niederkorn — Swift Hesperange, National Division
Luxembourg, National Division
Progres Niederkorn
2.1DWWLL
Swift Hesperange
1.3LLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
68%20%13%
Progres Niederkorn68%Draw20%Swift Hesperange13%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Progres Niederkorn1.47—
XDraw5.12—
2Swift Hesperange7.91—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricProgres NiederkornSwift HesperangeCombined
Goals scored0.830.000.83
Conceded0.171.501.67
Corners8.313.711.0
Cards—0.0—
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Progres NiederkornSwift Hesperange
FC Progrès Niederkorn 68%, FC Swift Hesperange 13%. The safest is “FC Progrès Niederkorn or draw” at 86%.
FC Progrès Niederkorn 68%Draw 20%FC Swift Hesperange 13%
1st half
46 · 38 · 15
2nd half
45 · 36 · 20
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Progres Niederkorn
- homeRacing Union0:0
- awayWiltz 712:1
- homeRumelange3:0
- awayMondorf1:2
- homeUNA Strassen0:1
Swift Hesperange
- awayDifferdange0:3
- homeResidence Walferdange0:3
- homeEtzella Ettelbruck0:3
- awayKaerjeng 970:6
- homeHostert0:2
Head to head
- 02/15/26National Division1:1
- 08/17/25National Division4:1
- 05/18/25National Division0:1
- 12/11/24National Division1:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3
Mondorf860216:1118
Mondorf860216:11184
Racing Union852122:717
Racing Union852122:7175Progres Niederkorn851213:516
Progres Niederkorn851213:5166
Kaerjeng 97850323:1515
Kaerjeng 97850323:15157
Atert Bissen850318:1115
Atert Bissen850318:11158
Residence Walferdange850316:1015
Residence Walferdange850316:10159
Hostert832314:1111
Hostert832314:111110
Jeunesse Esch821514:177
Jeunesse Esch821514:17711
Dudelange82158:157
Dudelange82158:15712
Rumelange82068:236
Rumelange82068:23613
Victoria Rosport812511:205
Victoria Rosport812511:20514
Etzella Ettelbruck81256:155
Etzella Ettelbruck81256:15515
Wiltz 71811614:224
Wiltz 71811614:22416Swift Hesperange80082:300
Swift Hesperange80082:300Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.