Both teams to score
Yes49%
ours 2.04
No51%
ours 1.96
All matches
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Porto — Napoli, UEFA Champions League
Europe, UEFA Champions League
Porto
4.0WWLWW
Napoli
3.1DWLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
48%28%25%
Porto48%Draw28%Napoli25%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Porto2.10—
XDraw3.64—
2Napoli4.04—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPortoNapoliCombined
Goals scored0.500.000.50
Conceded0.170.000.17
Corners6.0——
Cards3.0——
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PortoNapoli
FC Porto 48%, SSC Napoli 25%. The safest is “FC Porto or draw” at 75%.
FC Porto 48%Draw 28%SSC Napoli 25%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 1.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Porto
- homeBenfica3:1
- awayCasa Pia4:1
- homeManchester City0:2
- homeMoreirense2:1
- awayAcademico de Viseu3:0
Napoli
- awayFiorentina1:1
- homeBologna1:0
- homeArsenal0:1
- awayInter Milan2:3
- homeComo1:2
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
69
Inter Milan10011:20
Inter Milan10011:2070
Atletico Madrid10011:20
Atletico Madrid10011:2071Napoli10010:10
Napoli10010:1072
Atert Bissen20022:40
Atert Bissen20022:4073
Galatasaray10011:30
Galatasaray10011:3074
Tre Fiori20021:30
Tre Fiori20021:3075Porto10010:20
Porto10010:2076
TNS20021:40
TNS20021:4077
Sutjeska20021:40
Sutjeska20021:40Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.