Both teams to score
Yes54%
ours 1.84
No46%
ours 2.18
All matches
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Penafiel — Feirense, LigaPro
Portugal, LigaPro
Penafiel
1.8WWWWD
Feirense
1.6LLLLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
47%25%28%
Penafiel47%Draw25%Feirense28%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Penafiel2.14—
XDraw3.98—
2Feirense3.54—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricPenafielFeirenseCombined
Goals scored1.830.172.00
Conceded0.331.171.50
Corners8.08.08.0
Cards2.81.34.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
PenafielFeirense
FC Penafiel 47%, CD Feirense 28%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
FC Penafiel 47%Draw 25%CD Feirense 28%
1st half
37 · 38 · 25
2nd half
33 · 39 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Over 0.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Penafiel
- awayFelgueiras2:1
- homeAcademica4:1
- awayPorto II3:0
- homeSporting II2:0
- awayTorreense2:2
Feirense
- awayChaves0:1
- homeSporting II1:3
- awayAVS0:2
- homePorto II0:1
- awayAcademica0:1
Head to head
- 03/15/26LigaPro0:1
- 10/19/25LigaPro1:2
- 04/19/25LigaPro1:2
- 12/07/24LigaPro0:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Lusitania Lourosa651011:416
Lusitania Lourosa651011:4162Penafiel641113:513
Penafiel641113:5133
Sporting II64028:612
Sporting II64028:6124
Farense632111:511
Farense632111:5115
Vizela63217:411
Vizela63217:4116
Leiria631210:710
Leiria631210:7107
Leixoes63128:610
Leixoes63128:6108
Benfica II63127:510
Benfica II63127:5109
Tondela63037:69
Tondela63037:6910
Academica63038:109
Academica63038:10911
Portimonense62134:67
Portimonense62134:6712
AVS61326:66
AVS61326:6613
Felgueiras61325:66
Felgueiras61325:6614
Torreense61327:96
Torreense61327:9615
Amarante61235:85
Amarante61235:8516
Chaves61145:134
Chaves61145:13417
Porto II61144:134
Porto II61144:13418Feirense60151:81
Feirense60151:81Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.