Both teams to score
Yes50%
ours 2.00
No50%
ours 2.00
All matches
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Obolon-Brovar Kyiv — Shakhtar Donetsk, Ukrainian Premier League
Ukraine, Ukrainian Premier League
Obolon-Brovar Kyiv
1.3DLLDD
Shakhtar Donetsk
3.7WWDWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
16%76%
Obolon-Brovar Kyiv8%Draw16%Shakhtar Donetsk76%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Obolon-Brovar Kyiv12.38—
XDraw6.33—
2Shakhtar Donetsk1.31—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricObolon-Brovar KyivShakhtar DonetskCombined
Goals scored0.330.500.83
Conceded1.500.001.50
Corners9.37.08.2
Cards4.01.05.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Obolon-Brovar KyivShakhtar Donetsk
FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv 8%, FC Shakhtar Donetsk 76%. The safest is “FC Shakhtar Donetsk or draw” at 90%.
FC Obolon-Brovar Kyiv 8%Draw 16%FC Shakhtar Donetsk 76%
1st half
19 · 34 · 47
2nd half
15 · 32 · 53
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Second half total: Under 2.5
67%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Obolon-Brovar Kyiv
- awayChornomorets Odessa1:1
- awayLNZ Cherkasy1:3
- awayMetalist Kharkiv0:5
- awayKolos Kovalivka0:0
- awayKudrivka0:0
Shakhtar Donetsk
- homeLNZ Cherkasy3:0
- homeChornomorets Odessa2:0
- awayPSV1:1
- awayKarpaty Lviv2:1
- homePolissya Zhytomyr0:2
Head to head
- 05/13/26Ukrainian Premier League1:3
- 11/22/25Ukrainian Premier League0:6
- 03/29/25Ukrainian Premier League0:2
- 09/23/24Ukrainian Premier League0:4
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Shakhtar Donetsk760115:418
Shakhtar Donetsk760115:4182
Polissya Zhytomyr760115:518
Polissya Zhytomyr760115:5183
Karpaty Lviv742115:514
Karpaty Lviv742115:5144
Dynamo Kyiv64119:513
Dynamo Kyiv64119:5135
Metalist Kharkiv640212:412
Metalist Kharkiv640212:4126
Veres Rivne72326:69
Veres Rivne72326:697
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi72236:78
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi72236:788
LNZ Cherkasy72235:88
LNZ Cherkasy72235:889
Zorya Luhansk72237:118
Zorya Luhansk72237:11810
Livyi Bereh61414:37
Livyi Bereh61414:3711
Bukovyna Chernivtsi71424:67
Bukovyna Chernivtsi71424:6712
Hirnyk61237:105
Hirnyk61237:10513
Kolos Kovalivka61236:105
Kolos Kovalivka61236:10514
Chornomorets Odessa61233:75
Chornomorets Odessa61233:7515Obolon-Brovar Kyiv70432:124
Obolon-Brovar Kyiv70432:12416
Kudrivka70255:182
Kudrivka70255:182Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.