Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.74
No43%
ours 2.35
All matches
—
Lusitania Lourosa — Farense, LigaPro
Portugal, LigaPro
Lusitania Lourosa
2.0WWWDW
Farense
1.3WDLDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
41%25%35%
Lusitania Lourosa41%Draw25%Farense35%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lusitania Lourosa2.46—
XDraw4.05—
2Farense2.88—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLusitania LourosaFarenseCombined
Goals scored1.331.002.33
Conceded0.670.501.17
Corners8.39.08.6
Cards2.82.04.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Lusitania LourosaFarense
FC Lusitania de Lourosa 41%, SC Farense 35%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
FC Lusitania de Lourosa 41%Draw 25%SC Farense 35%
1st half
35 · 38 · 27
2nd half
30 · 36 · 34
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Over 3.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Lusitania Lourosa
- awaySporting II2:1
- homeAVS2:1
- awayAcademica2:0
- homeTorreense2:2
- awayAmarante1:0
Farense
- homeChaves4:0
- awayAVS0:0
- awaySporting II1:2
- homeFelgueiras1:1
- awayPorto II3:1
Head to head
- 03/01/26LigaPro1:2
- 10/04/25LigaPro1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Lusitania Lourosa651011:416
Lusitania Lourosa651011:4162
Penafiel641113:513
Penafiel641113:5133
Sporting II64028:612
Sporting II64028:6124Farense632111:511
Farense632111:5115
Vizela63217:411
Vizela63217:4116
Leiria631210:710
Leiria631210:710Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.