Both teams to score
Yes58%
ours 1.72book 1.82
No42%
ours 2.40book 1.88
All matches
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Lusitania Lourosa — Chaves, LigaPro
Portugal, LigaPro
Lusitania Lourosa
2.0WWWDW
Chaves
1.7LWLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
45%25%31%
Lusitania LourosaMarket 2.6245%DrawMarket 2.8325%ChavesMarket 2.8531%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lusitania Lourosa2.242.62+6.6
XDraw4.072.83-10.8
2Chaves3.262.85-4.4
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricLusitania LourosaChavesCombined
Goals scored1.830.832.66
Conceded0.672.172.84
Corners8.07.57.8
Cards3.02.25.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Lusitania LourosaChaves
FC Lusitania de Lourosa 45%, GD Chaves 31%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
FC Lusitania de Lourosa 45%Draw 25%GD Chaves 31%
1st half
34 · 38 · 29
2nd half
34 · 36 · 30
Bookmakers: 2.62 · 2.83 · 2.85
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
67%1.22
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Lusitania Lourosa
- awaySporting II2:1
- homeAVS2:1
- awayAcademica2:0
- homeTorreense2:2
- awayAmarante1:0
Chaves
- awayFarense0:4
- homeFeirense1:0
- awayFelgueiras1:2
- homeAVS2:2
- awaySporting II0:1
Head to head
- 01/24/26LigaPro2:2
- 08/16/25LigaPro2:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Lusitania Lourosa651011:416
Lusitania Lourosa651011:4162
Penafiel641113:513
Penafiel641113:5133
Sporting II64028:612
Sporting II64028:6124
Farense632111:511
Farense632111:5115
Vizela63217:411
Vizela63217:4116
Leiria631210:710
Leiria631210:7107
Leixoes63128:610
Leixoes63128:6108
Benfica II63127:510
Benfica II63127:5109
Tondela63037:69
Tondela63037:6910
Academica63038:109
Academica63038:10911
Portimonense62134:67
Portimonense62134:6712
AVS61326:66
AVS61326:6613
Felgueiras61325:66
Felgueiras61325:6614
Torreense61327:96
Torreense61327:9615
Amarante61235:85
Amarante61235:8516Chaves61145:134
Chaves61145:13417
Porto II61144:134
Porto II61144:13418
Feirense60151:81
Feirense60151:81Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.