All matches

Lokomotiv Sofia — Lokomotiv Plovdiv, First League

Bulgaria, First League

Lokomotiv Sofia
1.6WLDLD
—
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1.6DLWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
44%26%30%
Lokomotiv SofiaMarket 1.9144%DrawMarket 3.3026%Lokomotiv PlovdivMarket 3.9630%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Lokomotiv Sofia44%52%2.291.91-8.8
XDraw26%30%3.803.30-4.0
2Lokomotiv Plovdiv30%25%3.323.96+4.8

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.78book 1.94

No44%

ours 2.27book 1.77

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricLokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv PlovdivCombined
Goals scored1.170.501.67
Conceded1.831.333.16
Corners9.37.88.6
Cards3.52.76.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Lokomotiv SofiaLokomotiv Plovdiv

FC Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 44%, PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv 30%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

FC Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 44%Draw 26%PFC Lokomotiv Plovdiv 30%
1st half
35 · 39 · 26
2nd half
34 · 38 · 28

Bookmakers: 1.91 · 3.30 · 3.96

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

71%1.28
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Lokomotiv Sofia

  • awaySpartak Varna1:0
  • homeCSKA Sofia0:2
  • awayCherno More2:2
  • homeLudogorets1:2
  • awayDunav Ruse2:2

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

  • homeCSKA Sofia1:1
  • awayBotev Plovdiv0:2
  • homeCherno More1:0
  • awayCSKA 19480:2
  • homeArda0:1

Head to head

  • 04/03/26First League0:1
  • 10/24/25First League2:2
  • 05/02/25First League1:1
  • 02/23/25First League0:1
  • 09/01/24First League1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9Botev Vratsa102359:199
10Septemvri Sofia102268:188
11Lokomotiv Sofia1014511:187
12Lokomotiv Plovdiv102175:137
13Cherno More1013611:206
14Dunav Ruse1012710:195

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.