All matches

Kuressaare — Levadia, Meistriliiga

Estonia, Meistriliiga

Kuressaare
0.8DLLWD
—
Levadia
4.1DWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
12%14%74%
Kuressaare12%Draw14%Levadia74%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Kuressaare12%8.51—
XDraw14%7.02—
2Levadia74%1.35—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.90

No47%

ours 2.11

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricKuressaareLevadiaCombined
Goals scored0.672.503.17
Conceded1.330.171.50
Corners10.512.011.3
Cards1.82.03.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

KuressaareLevadia

FC Kuressaare 12%, Tallinna FC Levadia 74%. The safest is “Tallinna FC Levadia or draw” at 85%.

FC Kuressaare 12%Draw 14%Tallinna FC Levadia 74%
1st half
22 · 34 · 44
2nd half
18 · 33 · 50
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 2.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Kuressaare

  • awayHarju Jalgpallikool0:0
  • homeTammeka Tartu1:3
  • awayLevadia0:4
  • homeNarva Trans3:1
  • homeVaprus Parnu2:2

Levadia

  • awayNarva Trans1:1
  • homeTammeka Tartu6:0
  • homeVaprus Parnu4:0
  • homeKuressaare4:0
  • awayPaide2:0

Head to head

  • 09/09/26Meistriliiga0:4
  • 05/02/26Meistriliiga1:2
  • 03/08/26Meistriliiga0:2
  • 10/18/25Meistriliiga0:3
  • 08/01/25Meistriliiga0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Levadia29226181:2172
2Flora291811059:3955
3Paide29156848:3651
4Nomme Kalju29155952:2750
5Tammeka Tartu291421337:4744
6Harju Jalgpallikool291221541:4638
7Vaprus Parnu29941638:5831
8Kuressaare29851631:4929
9Nomme United29911947:6828
10Narva Trans29542022:6519

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.