Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.76
No43%
ours 2.31
All matches
—
Juarez — Queretaro, Liga MX
Mexico, Liga MX
Juarez
1.2LWLLL
Queretaro
1.6WDWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
38%26%36%
Juarez38%Draw26%Queretaro36%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Juarez2.64—
XDraw3.88—
2Queretaro2.75—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricJuarezQueretaroCombined
Goals scored0.500.501.00
Conceded0.330.170.50
Corners8.014.011.0
Cards1.53.04.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
JuarezQueretaro
FC Juárez 38%, Querétaro FC 36%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
FC Juárez 38%Draw 26%Querétaro FC 36%
1st half
38 · 39 · 22
2nd half
28 · 39 · 32
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Juarez
- awayLeon1:2
- homeTigres UANL2:0
- awaySantos Laguna1:2
- homePachuca0:2
- awayDeportivo Toluca0:4
Queretaro
- awayGuadalajara2:0
- homeLeon1:1
- awayTijuana1:0
- awayAtlas3:1
- homeDeportivo Toluca1:2
Head to head
- 04/08/26Liga MX1:1
- 11/08/25Liga MX1:2
- 04/21/25Liga MX0:2
- 11/02/24Liga MX2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
America962121:1020
America962121:10203
Guadalajara1053217:1018
Guadalajara1053217:10184Queretaro952213:817
Queretaro952213:8175
Leon1052314:1117
Leon1052314:11176
Atlas1052316:1717
Atlas1052316:17177
Cruz Azul1051419:1816
Cruz Azul1051419:18168
Tijuana942314:1314
Tijuana942314:13149
Puebla1042411:1214
Puebla1042411:121410
Monterrey941416:1413
Monterrey941416:141311
Pachuca1033415:1112
Pachuca1033415:111212
Pumas UNAM1033414:1612
Pumas UNAM1033414:161213
Atletico San Luis1033414:1812
Atletico San Luis1033414:181214
Atlante1025312:1511
Atlante1025312:151115
Tigres UANL1024410:1310
Tigres UANL1024410:131016
Santos Laguna1031610:1510
Santos Laguna1031610:151017
Necaxa1022612:208
Necaxa1022612:20818Juarez101097:253
Juarez101097:253Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.