Both teams to score
Yes51%
ours 1.95
No49%
ours 2.05
All matches
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Inter Milan — Shakhtar Donetsk, UEFA Champions League
Europe, UEFA Champions League
Inter Milan
3.9DWLWW
Shakhtar Donetsk
3.7WWDWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
78%14%
Inter Milan78%Draw14%Shakhtar Donetsk8%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Inter Milan1.28—
XDraw7.11—
2Shakhtar Donetsk13.09—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricInter MilanShakhtar DonetskCombined
Goals scored1.331.002.33
Conceded1.170.171.34
Corners10.75.78.2
Cards2.32.75.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Inter MilanShakhtar Donetsk
FC Internazionale Milano 78%, FC Shakhtar Donetsk 8%. The safest is “FC Internazionale Milano or draw” at 92%.
FC Internazionale Milano 78%Draw 14%FC Shakhtar Donetsk 8%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 4.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Inter Milan
- awayRoma2:2
- homeUdinese5:3
- awayReal Madrid1:2
- homeNapoli3:2
- awayCagliari1:0
Shakhtar Donetsk
- homeLNZ Cherkasy3:0
- homeChornomorets Odessa2:0
- awayPSV1:1
- awayKarpaty Lviv2:1
- homePolissya Zhytomyr0:2
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
50
Floriana21013:53
Floriana21013:5351
Sparta Prague21012:43
Sparta Prague21012:4352Shakhtar Donetsk10101:11
Shakhtar Donetsk10101:1153
Roma10101:11
Roma10101:1154
PSV10101:11
PSV10101:1155
Union Saint-Gilloise20115:61
Union Saint-Gilloise20115:6156
Flora20114:51
Flora20114:5157
Thun20113:41
Thun20113:4158
Drita20113:41
Drita20113:4159
ETO Gyor20112:31
ETO Gyor20112:3160
Gornik Zabrze20111:21
Gornik Zabrze20111:2161
Olympiakos20111:21
Olympiakos20111:2162
Inter Escaldes20112:41
Inter Escaldes20112:4163
Borac Banja Luka20111:51
Borac Banja Luka20111:5164
Petrocub20112:71
Petrocub20112:7165
Slavia Prague10012:30
Slavia Prague10012:3066
Lille10012:30
Lille10012:3067
Villarreal10012:30
Villarreal10012:3068
Club Brugge10012:30
Club Brugge10012:3069Inter Milan10011:20
Inter Milan10011:2070
Atletico Madrid10011:20
Atletico Madrid10011:2071
Napoli10010:10
Napoli10010:10Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.