Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.63
No39%
ours 2.58
All matches
—
Dallas — San Jose Earthquakes, MLS
USA, MLS
Dallas
2.1WDWWW
San Jose Earthquakes
1.5WDWWD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
48%24%27%
Dallas48%Draw24%San Jose Earthquakes27%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Dallas2.06—
XDraw4.12—
2San Jose Earthquakes3.67—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricDallasSan Jose EarthquakesCombined
Goals scored0.501.001.50
Conceded0.170.500.67
Corners10.013.011.5
Cards1.72.34.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
DallasSan Jose Earthquakes
FC Dallas 48%, San Jose Earthquakes 27%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
FC Dallas 48%Draw 24%San Jose Earthquakes 27%
1st half
39 · 33 · 27
2nd half
33 · 39 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 12.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Dallas
- homeLos Angeles1:0
- homeAustin0:0
- homePortland Timbers2:1
- awayMinnesota United2:1
- homeSporting Kansas City4:3
San Jose Earthquakes
- homePortland Timbers3:1
- homeLos Angeles2:2
- homeHouston Dynamo1:0
- awaySan Diego3:2
- awayAustin1:1
Head to head
- 05/17/26MLS3:2
- 07/17/25MLS2:2
- 06/26/25MLS2:4
- 10/03/24MLS2:3
- 02/25/24MLS2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
Vancouver Whitecaps26155659:2650
Vancouver Whitecaps26155659:26503
St. Louis City27138648:3647
St. Louis City27138648:36474Dallas27138650:4247
Dallas27138650:42475
Inter Miami271210564:5046
Inter Miami271210564:50466
New England Revolution27144945:3646
New England Revolution27144945:36467San Jose Earthquakes27136849:3945
San Jose Earthquakes27136849:39458
Houston Dynamo27135934:3244
Houston Dynamo27135934:32449
Charlotte27127847:3843
Charlotte27127847:3843Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.