Both teams to score
Yes64%
ours 1.57
No36%
ours 2.74
All matches
—
Cincinnati — Philadelphia Union, MLS
USA, MLS
Cincinnati
2.5LDDLL
Philadelphia Union
2.2WWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
38%24%38%
Cincinnati38%Draw24%Philadelphia Union38%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Cincinnati2.62—
XDraw4.14—
2Philadelphia Union2.65—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCincinnatiPhiladelphia UnionCombined
Goals scored0.000.670.67
Conceded0.000.330.33
Corners—14.0—
Cards—2.0—
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
CincinnatiPhiladelphia Union
FC Cincinnati 38%, Philadelphia Union 38%. The safest is “No draw” at 76%.
FC Cincinnati 38%Draw 24%Philadelphia Union 38%
1st half
39 · 35 · 26
2nd half
27 · 35 · 38
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Over 2.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Cincinnati
- awayMontreal Impact1:3
- awayHouston Dynamo2:2
- homeCharlotte3:3
- awayPhiladelphia Union0:5
- awayNashville SC0:4
Philadelphia Union
- homeOrlando City4:2
- awaySporting Kansas City4:3
- awaySan Diego5:0
- homeCincinnati5:0
- homeMontreal Impact2:0
Head to head
- 09/09/26MLS0:5
- 08/30/25MLS0:1
- 03/02/25MLS1:4
- 10/19/24MLS2:1
- 06/19/24MLS4:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10
Chicago Fire26126846:3842
Chicago Fire26126846:384211
Los Angeles28118943:3041
Los Angeles28118943:304112Philadelphia Union271161054:4439
Philadelphia Union271161054:443913
Seattle Sounders27108935:3538
Seattle Sounders27108935:353814
Colorado Rapids271131338:3836
Colorado Rapids271131338:383615
LA Galaxy28991037:4436
LA Galaxy28991037:443616
Orlando City271041348:6434
Orlando City271041348:643417
New York City27891041:3633
New York City27891041:363318Cincinnati2689955:6433
Cincinnati2689955:643319
New York Red Bulls27961234:5133
New York Red Bulls27961234:513320
San Diego27881147:4732
San Diego27881147:4732Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.