Both teams to score
Yes61%
ours 1.63book 1.40
No39%
ours 2.60book 2.73
All matches
Cincinnati — DC United, MLS
USA, MLS
Cincinnati
1.8LLWLD
DC United
1.2LWLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
64%20%16%
CincinnatiMarket 1.6864%DrawMarket 4.5420%DC UnitedMarket 4.6416%
Model vs market
Our probability against the market’s — the bookmaker price with its margin removed. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Cincinnati1.561.68+6.2
XDraw4.914.54-1.0
2DC United6.364.64-5.2
our modelmarket — bookmaker price, margin removed
Quick markets
The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.
Over 2.5 goals
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Over 9.5 corners
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Goals and corners — with Premium
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Combos
Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.
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Confident answers
The line where the model is closest to 72% — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
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71%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 2553 matches
Corners
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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 2548 matches
Cards
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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 2528 matches
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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
CincinnatiDC United
FC Cincinnati 64%, DC United 16%. The safest is “FC Cincinnati or draw” at 85%.
FC Cincinnati 64%Draw 20%DC United 16%
1st half
50 · 31 · 19
2nd half
58 · 27 · 15
Bookmakers: 1.68 · 4.54 · 4.64
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Both teams to score: Yes
62%1.40
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Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCincinnatiDC UnitedCombined
Goals scored1.601.403.00
Conceded2.202.805.00
Corners10.010.610.3
Cards2.01.63.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Insights
What to know before the match: recent games, the table, head-to-head. Only facts from played matches — no model opinions.
Cincinnati- Winless at home in 4 matches0:2, 2:3, 3:3, 1:1, 2:1
- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches11 goals conceded
- 2nd in the league for shots on target — 6.0 per match30 teams in the league
DC United- Winless away in 6 matches1:4, 0:4, 3:3, 1:3, 1:1
- Conceded in every one of the last 5 matches14 goals conceded
- 12 draws in 29 matches — most in the league26th place, 33 points
Based on played matches of the current season and recent games. A fact is shown only when it stands out from the usual.
Form and context
Cincinnati
- homeColumbus Crew0:2
- homeNew England Revolution2:3
- awayAtlanta United3:1
- awayMontreal Impact1:3
- awayHouston Dynamo2:2
DC United
- awayOrlando City1:4
- homeNew York Red Bulls2:1
- awayInter Miami0:4
- awayVancouver Whitecaps3:3
- homeCharlotte1:2
Head to head
- 05/31/25MLS1:2
- 04/12/25MLS1:0
- 07/03/24MLS3:2
- 03/10/24MLS0:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
17
Real Salt Lake301061445:4836
Real Salt Lake301061445:483618
Toronto308121046:5536
Toronto308121046:553619Cincinnati29991160:7036
Cincinnati29991160:703620
New York Red Bulls301061439:5636
New York Red Bulls301061439:563621
Columbus Crew301051546:4735
Columbus Crew301051546:473522
New York City308101243:4134
New York City308101243:413423
San Diego308101253:5634
San Diego308101253:563424
Portland Timbers30971451:5634
Portland Timbers30971451:563425
Minnesota United308101247:5534
Minnesota United308101247:553426DC United297121037:5133
DC United297121037:513327
Austin307101338:5631
Austin307101338:563128
Atlanta United30861637:5130
Atlanta United30861637:5130Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.