Both teams to score
Yes62%
ours 1.62
No38%
ours 2.62
All matches
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Barcelona — Aston Villa, UEFA Champions League
Europe, UEFA Champions League
Barcelona
4.5WWWWW
Aston Villa
3.3WLWDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
59%21%20%
Barcelona59%Draw21%Aston Villa20%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Barcelona1.71—
XDraw4.68—
2Aston Villa4.98—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricBarcelonaAston VillaCombined
Goals scored0.000.000.00
Conceded0.000.000.00
Corners
Cards
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
BarcelonaAston Villa
FC Barcelona 59%, Aston Villa FC 20%. The safest is “FC Barcelona or draw” at 80%.
FC Barcelona 59%Draw 21%Aston Villa FC 20%
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 12.5
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Barcelona
- awaySevilla3:1
- homeRacing Santander7:2
- awayLevante4:2
- homeFeyenoord5:1
- awayValencia5:0
Aston Villa
- awayTottenham3:2
- homeNottingham Forest1:2
- awayClub Brugge3:2
- awayHull City0:0
- homeArsenal0:1
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
28
PSG11006:13
PSG11006:1329
Bayern Munich11005:03
Bayern Munich11005:0330Barcelona11005:13
Barcelona11005:1331
Manchester United11004:03
Manchester United11004:0332
Como11004:13
Como11004:1333
Stuttgart11003:13
Stuttgart11003:1334
Sporting CP11003:13
Sporting CP11003:1335
Manchester City11002:03
Manchester City11002:0336
Real Betis11003:23
Real Betis11003:2337
Lens11003:23
Lens11003:2338Aston Villa11003:23
Aston Villa11003:2339
Borussia Dortmund11003:23
Borussia Dortmund11003:2340
Liverpool11002:13
Liverpool11002:13Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.