Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.68
No40%
ours 2.48
All matches
—
Augsburg — Freiburg, Bundesliga
Germany, Bundesliga
Augsburg
1.9LDWWL
Freiburg
2.7DWWWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
38%26%37%
Augsburg38%Draw26%Freiburg37%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Augsburg2.65—
XDraw3.91—
2Freiburg2.73—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricAugsburgFreiburgCombined
Goals scored1.330.331.66
Conceded1.000.331.33
Corners11.08.09.5
Cards1.32.03.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
AugsburgFreiburg
FC Augsburg 38%, SC Freiburg 37%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
FC Augsburg 38%Draw 26%SC Freiburg 37%
1st half
33 · 37 · 30
2nd half
32 · 38 · 30
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 0.5
71%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Augsburg
- awayWerder Bremen2:3
- homeBayer Leverkusen2:2
- awayEintracht Frankfurt4:1
- homeSchalke 043:0
- awayUnion Berlin0:4
Freiburg
- awayEintracht Frankfurt2:2
- homeBorussia Monchengladbach5:0
- awayPaderborn1:0
- homeWerder Bremen4:1
- homeMotherwell4:1
Head to head
- 01/18/26Bundesliga2:2
- 08/23/25Bundesliga3:1
- 03/02/25Bundesliga0:0
- 10/19/24Bundesliga1:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Borussia Dortmund44009:212
Borussia Dortmund44009:2122
Bayern Munich431014:210
Bayern Munich431014:2103Freiburg431012:310
Freiburg431012:3104Augsburg421111:67
Augsburg421111:675
Bayer Leverkusen421110:57
Bayer Leverkusen421110:576
Mainz 05421110:67
Mainz 05421110:67Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.