Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.74book 1.61
No43%
ours 2.35book 2.18
All matches
—
Falkirk — Dundee, Premiership
Scotland, Premiership
Falkirk
1.7DWDLL
Dundee
1.4WLDLW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
50%25%25%
FalkirkMarket 2.0150%DrawMarket 3.4825%DundeeMarket 3.5025%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Falkirk2.002.01+0.1
XDraw4.053.48-4.0
2Dundee3.943.50-3.2
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricFalkirkDundeeCombined
Goals scored1.001.502.50
Conceded1.171.002.17
Corners10.211.710.9
Cards2.31.53.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
FalkirkDundee
Falkirk FC 50%, Dundee FC 25%. The safest is “Falkirk FC or draw” at 76%.
Falkirk FC 50%Draw 25%Dundee FC 25%
1st half
39 · 35 · 26
2nd half
40 · 37 · 23
Bookmakers: 2.01 · 3.48 · 3.50
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
67%1.36
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Falkirk
- awaySaint Johnstone1:1
- homeHearts2:1
- awayDundee United1:1
- homeRangers1:2
- awayCeltic1:2
Dundee
- homeMotherwell2:1
- awayHearts1:2
- homeSaint Johnstone1:1
- homeHibernian1:2
- awayDundee United2:0
Head to head
- 02/11/26Premiership1:0
- 12/27/25Premiership0:1
- 10/25/25Premiership2:1
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2
Rangers75118:416
Rangers75118:4163
Hearts741214:813
Hearts741214:8134Dundee73139:710
Dundee73139:7105
St. Mirren73138:910
St. Mirren73138:9106
Saint Johnstone72239:108
Saint Johnstone72239:1087
Aberdeen72237:88
Aberdeen72237:888
Dundee United72239:118
Dundee United72239:1189
Motherwell72239:118
Motherwell72239:11810
Hibernian72148:117
Hibernian72148:11711Falkirk71336:96
Falkirk71336:9612
Kilmarnock71246:155
Kilmarnock71246:155Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.