All matches

Siauliai — Dziugas Telsiai, A Lyga

Lithuania, A Lyga

Siauliai
1.1LDLLL
—
Dziugas Telsiai
1.8LLDLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
31%26%43%
Siauliai31%Draw26%Dziugas Telsiai43%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Siauliai31%3.18—
XDraw26%3.90—
2Dziugas Telsiai43%2.33—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.74

No43%

ours 2.35

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricSiauliaiDziugas TelsiaiCombined
Goals scored0.170.330.50
Conceded0.831.502.33
Corners13.310.311.8
Cards1.32.33.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

SiauliaiDziugas Telsiai

FA Šiauliai 31%, FK Džiugas Telšiai 43%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.

FA Šiauliai 31%Draw 26%FK Džiugas Telšiai 43%
1st half
31 · 38 · 31
2nd half
28 · 39 · 33
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Siauliai

  • homeKauno Zalgiris0:2
  • homeHegelmann0:0
  • awayZalgiris0:1
  • homeSuduva Marijampole1:2
  • awayTransINVEST0:3

Dziugas Telsiai

  • awayBanga Gargzdai0:2
  • awayKauno Zalgiris0:5
  • homeHegelmann2:2
  • awayZalgiris0:2
  • homeSuduva Marijampole0:2

Head to head

  • 08/09/26A Lyga3:4
  • 06/12/26A Lyga3:4
  • 04/12/26A Lyga0:1
  • 11/08/25A Lyga2:2
  • 08/31/25A Lyga3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Zalgiris301461044:3648
5Banga Gargzdai30138941:2847
6Dziugas Telsiai301281039:4044
7Panevezys291051431:4435
8Hegelmann304151131:4827
9Siauliai31491827:5921
10Trakai1603135:423

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.