All matches

Everton Vina del Mar — La Serena, Primera División

Chile, Primera División

Everton Vina del Mar
1.7WLWWD
—
La Serena
1.6LWWDW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
58%21%21%
Everton Vina del MarMarket 1.6958%DrawMarket 3.7521%La SerenaMarket 4.1621%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Everton Vina del Mar58%59%1.721.69-1.2
XDraw21%27%4.753.75-5.6
2La Serena21%24%4.774.16-3.1

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.77book 1.60

No43%

ours 2.30book 2.22

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricEverton Vina del MarLa SerenaCombined
Goals scored2.331.503.83
Conceded0.831.332.16
Corners8.210.89.5
Cards1.52.84.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Everton Vina del MarLa Serena

Everton de Viña del Mar 58%, CD La Serena 21%. The safest is “Everton de Viña del Mar or draw” at 81%.

Everton de Viña del Mar 58%Draw 21%CD La Serena 21%
1st half
41 · 37 · 22
2nd half
46 · 34 · 20

Bookmakers: 1.69 · 3.75 · 4.16

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Over 0.5

72%1.28
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Everton Vina del Mar

  • awayNublense3:1
  • homeUniversidad Catolica0:1
  • awayDeportes Limache3:0
  • homeUniversidad de Concepcion3:1
  • homeAudax Italiano1:1

La Serena

  • homeUniversidad de Chile0:3
  • homeNublense2:1
  • awayUnion La Calera1:0
  • homeCobresal3:3
  • awayUniversidad de Concepcion2:0

Head to head

  • 04/11/26Primera División0:1
  • 08/28/25Primera División3:1
  • 04/13/25Primera División1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Palestino23113936:3336
5Deportes Limache231031043:3533
6Everton Vina del Mar2396834:2633
7Nublense2388728:3132
8Concepcion23941025:2631
9La Serena2379734:3830
10Coquimbo Unido2285931:3129
11Audax Italiano2377926:3128

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.