Étoile Carouge FC — Yverdon Sport FC, Challenge League

Switzerland, Challenge LeagueOctober 9 at 06:15 PM

Étoile Carouge FC

LLDLW

—

Yverdon Sport FC

1.5DLWWD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

26%26%48%

Étoile Carouge FC26%Draw26%Yverdon Sport FC48%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Étoile Carouge FC26%3.82—

XDraw26%3.86—

2Yverdon Sport FC48%2.09—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.77

No43%

ours 2.30

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricÉtoile Carouge FCYverdon Sport FCCombined

Goals scored0.671.502.17

Conceded1.671.002.67

Corners11.510.210.8

Cards1.71.73.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 878 matches

Corners

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70%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 877 matches

Cards

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68%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 874 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Étoile Carouge FCYverdon Sport FC

Étoile Carouge FC 26%, Yverdon Sport FC 48%. The safest is “No draw” at 72%.

Étoile Carouge FC 26%Draw 26%Yverdon Sport FC 48%

1st half

25 · 45 · 29

2nd half

27 · 35 · 38

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Form and context