Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.75
No43%
ours 2.34
All matches
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Troyes — Le Mans, Ligue 1
France, Ligue 1
Troyes
1.8LLLWD
Le Mans
1.9WDDLD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
43%25%32%
Troyes43%Draw25%Le Mans32%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Troyes2.34—
XDraw3.98—
2Le Mans3.10—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricTroyesLe MansCombined
Goals scored0.330.831.16
Conceded1.670.672.34
Corners10.37.79.0
Cards1.02.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
TroyesLe Mans
Espérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne 43%, Le Mans FC 32%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Espérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne 43%Draw 25%Le Mans FC 32%
1st half
38 · 35 · 27
2nd half
31 · 41 · 28
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total goals: Under 3.5
70%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Troyes
- awayAngers0:2
- awayLille0:2
- homeStrasbourg2:6
- awayLorient2:1
- homeParis FC0:0
Le Mans
- homeLorient2:1
- homeLens2:2
- awayNice1:1
- awayRennes2:3
- homeBrest2:2
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7
Angers52126:57
Angers52126:578
Strasbourg521210:107
Strasbourg521210:1079Le Mans51319:96
Le Mans51319:9610
Auxerre52037:126
Auxerre52037:12611
Brest51227:85
Brest51227:8512
Lorient51225:65
Lorient51225:6513
Toulouse51227:95
Toulouse51227:9514
Nice51223:65
Nice51223:6515
Lens51139:94
Lens51139:9416Troyes51134:114
Troyes51134:11417
Marseille51047:83
Marseille51047:8318
Le Havre50234:72
Le Havre50234:72Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.