Esperance de Tunis — Olympique Beja, Ligue 1

Tunisia, Ligue 1October 10 at 01:30 PM

Esperance de Tunis

3.1WWLWW

—

Olympique Beja

1.2DDLLD

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

88%

Esperance de TunisMarket 1.2288%DrawMarket 5.009%Olympique BejaMarket 11.204%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Esperance de Tunis88%82%1.141.22+5.7

XDraw9%20%11.345.00-11.2

2Olympique Beja4%9%28.1711.20-5.4

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 2.00book 2.36

No50%

ours 2.00book 1.50

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Combos

Three kinds of combos — the most likely combination in each. The most likely of the three is highlighted. Every combination is in the tables below.

Combos come with a subscription: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 907 matches

Corners

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69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 906 matches

Cards

This market opens with a subscription.

68%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 903 matches

This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Esperance de TunisOlympique Beja

Espérance Sportive de Tunis 88%, Olympique de Béja 4%. The safest is “Espérance Sportive de Tunis or draw” at 96%.

Espérance Sportive de Tunis 88%Draw 9%Olympique de Béja 4%

1st half

62 · 27 · 11

2nd half

65 · 30 · 6

Bookmakers: 1.22 · 5.00 · 11.20

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 2.5

71%1.79

High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricEsperance de TunisOlympique BejaCombined

Goals scored1.170.501.67

Conceded1.000.831.83

Corners9.810.09.9

Cards1.81.73.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.