Both teams to score
Yes64%
ours 1.56
No36%
ours 2.80
All matches
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El Paso Locomotive — New Mexico United, USL Championship
USA, USL Championship
El Paso Locomotive
LDWWW
New Mexico United
WLLDD
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
51%22%27%
El Paso Locomotive51%Draw22%New Mexico United27%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1El Paso Locomotive1.95—
XDraw4.56—
2New Mexico United3.72—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricEl Paso LocomotiveNew Mexico UnitedCombined
Goals scored1.170.671.84
Conceded1.000.831.83
Corners9.810.09.9
Cards1.82.54.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Confident answers
The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.
Goals
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 890 matches
Corners
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 889 matches
Cards
This market opens with a subscription.
Sign up69%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 886 matches
This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block shows the model’s accuracy, not the value of a bet.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
El Paso LocomotiveNew Mexico United
El Paso Locomotive FC 51%, New Mexico United 27%. The safest is “No draw” at 78%.
El Paso Locomotive FC 51%Draw 22%New Mexico United 27%
1st half
44 · 36 · 20
2nd half
37 · 35 · 29
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 5.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
El Paso Locomotive
- awayLexington SC1:3
- homeTulsa1:1
- awayPhoenix Rising3:1
- awayLouisville City2:1
- homeLoudoun United4:1
New Mexico United
- homePhoenix Rising2:1
- awayTulsa0:1
- homeSacramento Republic2:3
- awayColorado Springs Switchbacks0:0
- awayBirmingham Legion4:4
Head to head
- 05/07/26USL Championship2:2
- 05/04/25USL Championship3:0
- 03/22/25USL Championship0:1
- 07/28/24USL Championship1:2
- 04/07/24USL Championship2:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Tampa Bay Rowdies27157546:2552
Tampa Bay Rowdies27157546:25522
Detroit City27138633:2047
Detroit City27138633:20473El Paso Locomotive27145846:3547
El Paso Locomotive27145846:35474
Charleston Battery26144852:3146
Charleston Battery26144852:31465New Mexico United27137741:3246
New Mexico United27137741:32466
Sacramento Republic271111537:2544
Sacramento Republic271111537:25447
Lexington SC271341049:3343
Lexington SC271341049:3343Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.