All matches

Dungannon Swifts — Carrick Rangers, NIFL Premiership

Northern Ireland, NIFL Premiership

Dungannon Swifts
1.7LDLLW
—
Carrick Rangers
1.4WLLDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
45%22%32%
Dungannon SwiftsMarket 2.2245%DrawMarket 3.4422%Carrick RangersMarket 2.7432%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Dungannon Swifts45%45%2.202.22+0.4
XDraw22%29%4.503.44-6.8
2Carrick Rangers32%36%3.092.74-4.1

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes59%

ours 1.70book 1.49

No41%

ours 2.43book 2.42

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDungannon SwiftsCarrick RangersCombined
Goals scored0.831.332.16
Conceded1.172.003.17
Corners11.011.311.2
Cards1.81.53.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Dungannon SwiftsCarrick Rangers

Dungannon Swifts FC 45%, Carrick Rangers FC 32%. The safest is “No draw” at 77%.

Dungannon Swifts FC 45%Draw 22%Carrick Rangers FC 32%
1st half
39 · 35 · 26
2nd half
36 · 38 · 26

Bookmakers: 2.22 · 3.44 · 2.74

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Home or draw

71%1.35
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Dungannon Swifts

  • awayGlentoran0:2
  • homeBallymena United1:1
  • awayCrusaders0:3
  • homeLinfield0:1
  • awayLimavady United2:0

Carrick Rangers

  • homeCrusaders4:0
  • awayGlentoran0:2
  • homeLarne2:5
  • awayBallymena United1:1
  • homeCliftonville1:3

Head to head

  • 05/06/26NIFL Premiership3:1
  • 01/24/26NIFL Premiership1:5
  • 12/13/25NIFL Premiership3:3
  • 08/23/25NIFL Premiership0:2
  • 02/15/25NIFL Premiership3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Glentoran1051415:1016
5Crusaders1050515:1815
6Carrick Rangers1041515:1513
7Dungannon Swifts94149:1013
8Ballymena United933313:1112
9Cliftonville1040612:1212

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.