All matches

Dundalk — Shamrock Rovers, Premier Division

Republic of Ireland, Premier Division

Dundalk
1.3LLLDW
—
Shamrock Rovers
2.8WLDDL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
29%27%44%
Dundalk29%Draw27%Shamrock Rovers44%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Dundalk29%3.41—
XDraw27%3.77—
2Shamrock Rovers44%2.26—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.77

No44%

ours 2.29

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDundalkShamrock RoversCombined
Goals scored0.670.501.17
Conceded1.670.672.34
Corners6.811.08.9
Cards2.02.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

DundalkShamrock Rovers

Dundalk FC 29%, Shamrock Rovers FC 44%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

Dundalk FC 29%Draw 27%Shamrock Rovers FC 44%
1st half
34 · 35 · 31
2nd half
27 · 42 · 31
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 10.5

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Dundalk

  • homeBohemians1:2
  • homeShelbourne2:3
  • homeSt Patrick's0:4
  • awayWaterford1:1
  • awayDrogheda United3:2

Shamrock Rovers

  • homeWaterford3:2
  • awaySt Patrick's0:2
  • homeShelbourne0:0
  • awayDerry City3:3
  • awayKuPS0:1

Head to head

  • 08/07/26Premier Division2:3
  • 05/15/26Premier Division1:0
  • 02/23/26Premier Division1:1
  • 10/27/24Premier Division0:1
  • 07/04/24Premier Division0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1St Patrick's32178752:2559
2Bohemians32178757:3859
3Shamrock Rovers31178649:3159
4Derry City32914945:4241
5Dundalk3310111250:5541
6Shelbourne329131042:4540
7Galway United329111242:4838

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.