Both teams to score
Yes57%
ours 1.77
No43%
ours 2.30
All matches
—
Derby County — Stoke City, Championship
England, Championship
Derby County
1.5DLLLW
Stoke City
1.3WWDWW
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
47%26%27%
Derby County47%Draw26%Stoke City27%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Derby County2.12—
XDraw3.82—
2Stoke City3.74—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricDerby CountyStoke CityCombined
Goals scored0.331.501.83
Conceded1.170.501.67
Corners12.310.511.4
Cards1.32.33.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Derby CountyStoke City
Derby County FC 47%, Stoke City FC 27%. The safest is “No draw” at 74%.
Derby County FC 47%Draw 26%Stoke City FC 27%
1st half
35 · 38 · 26
2nd half
36 · 39 · 25
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Double chance: Home or draw
72%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Derby County
- awayBurnley1:1
- homeBirmingham City1:2
- homeWest Bromwich0:1
- awayWest Ham0:3
- awayPortsmouth2:0
Stoke City
- homeSheffield United2:1
- awayWatford2:1
- awayCardiff City1:1
- homeCharlton Athletic4:0
- homeNorwich City1:0
Head to head
- 04/06/26Championship2:0
- 08/09/25Championship1:3
- 05/03/25Championship0:0
- 11/02/24Championship1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6
West Bromwich842210:814
West Bromwich842210:8147
QPR834110:713
QPR834110:7138Stoke City841313:1213
Stoke City841313:12139
Bristol City841311:1213
Bristol City841311:121310
Charlton Athletic83327:1012
Charlton Athletic83327:101211
Birmingham City825112:1111
Birmingham City825112:111112
Millwall832315:1511
Millwall832315:151113
Lincoln City83237:811
Lincoln City83237:81114
Wrexham82429:1210
Wrexham82429:121015
Bolton Wanderers831411:1510
Bolton Wanderers831411:151016
Blackburn Rovers823312:129
Blackburn Rovers823312:12917
Norwich City830516:179
Norwich City830516:17918
Sheffield United82339:119
Sheffield United82339:11919
Portsmouth72239:108
Portsmouth72239:10820
Watford82247:108
Watford82247:10821
Cardiff City814310:127
Cardiff City814310:12722Derby County81257:145
Derby County81257:14523
Preston81168:154
Preston81168:15424
Burnley80449:174
Burnley80449:174Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.