Both teams to score
Yes60%
ours 1.68
No40%
ours 2.47
All matches
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Derby County — Norwich City, Championship
England, Championship
Derby County
1.5DLLLW
Norwich City
1.7LLWWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
39%26%35%
Derby County39%Draw26%Norwich City35%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Derby County2.57—
XDraw3.86—
2Norwich City2.84—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricDerby CountyNorwich CityCombined
Goals scored0.170.500.67
Conceded0.170.670.84
Corners10.06.08.0
Cards2.00.02.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Derby CountyNorwich City
Derby County FC 39%, Norwich City FC 35%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.
Derby County FC 39%Draw 26%Norwich City FC 35%
1st half
36 · 36 · 28
2nd half
29 · 38 · 33
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total corners: Under 11.5
67%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Derby County
- awayBurnley1:1
- homeBirmingham City1:2
- homeWest Bromwich0:1
- awayWest Ham0:3
- awayPortsmouth2:0
Norwich City
- homeBolton Wanderers3:4
- awayMiddlesbrough3:4
- homeBirmingham City2:1
- awaySheffield United3:1
- awayStoke City0:1
Head to head
- 04/21/26Championship1:2
- 10/21/25Championship1:0
- 02/08/25Championship1:1
- 09/28/24Championship2:3
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
15
Bolton Wanderers831411:1510
Bolton Wanderers831411:151016
Blackburn Rovers823312:129
Blackburn Rovers823312:12917Norwich City830516:179
Norwich City830516:17918
Sheffield United82339:119
Sheffield United82339:11919
Portsmouth72239:108
Portsmouth72239:10820
Watford82247:108
Watford82247:10821
Cardiff City814310:127
Cardiff City814310:12722Derby County81257:145
Derby County81257:14523
Preston81168:154
Preston81168:15424
Burnley80449:174
Burnley80449:174Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.