Both teams to score
Yes59%
ours 1.68
No41%
ours 2.46
All matches
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Independiente Medellin — Once Caldas, Categoria Primera A
Colombia, Categoria Primera A
Independiente Medellin
2.7LDLWD
Once Caldas
2.3DLLWL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5?What this means
Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.
Outcome probability
53%25%22%
Independiente Medellin53%Draw25%Once Caldas22%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Independiente Medellin1.89—
XDraw3.96—
2Once Caldas4.59—
our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricIndependiente MedellinOnce CaldasCombined
Goals scored1.000.501.50
Conceded1.330.832.16
Corners9.08.58.8
Cards3.02.05.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.
Independiente MedellinOnce Caldas
Deportivo Independiente Medellín 53%, Once Caldas SA 22%. The safest is “Deportivo Independiente Medellín or draw” at 76%.
Deportivo Independiente Medellín 53%Draw 25%Once Caldas SA 22%
1st half
38 · 38 · 24
2nd half
40 · 38 · 23
Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Total cards: Under 6.5
68%
Two more scenarios — with a subscription
Form and context
Independiente Medellin
- homeIndependiente Santa Fe0:1
- homeMillonarios2:2
- awayJunior0:2
- homeJaguares de Cordoba2:1
- awayBucaramanga2:2
Once Caldas
- awayLa Equidad1:1
- homeBucaramanga1:3
- awayPasto0:1
- homeDeportes Tolima1:0
- homeDeportivo Cali1:2
Head to head
- 04/03/26Categoria Primera A1:1
- 10/13/25Categoria Primera A5:1
- 04/20/25Categoria Primera A2:0
- 09/28/24Categoria Primera A2:0
- 03/17/24Categoria Primera A1:2
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
6
Deportivo Cali31149840:2551
Deportivo Cali31149840:25517
Millonarios321211949:3447
Millonarios321211949:34478Once Caldas331114848:4147
Once Caldas331114848:41479
Bucaramanga301113646:3046
Bucaramanga301113646:304610Independiente Medellin311371145:4046
Independiente Medellin311371145:404611
Pasto331271438:4643
Pasto331271438:464312
La Equidad349141142:5341
La Equidad349141142:5341Full breakdown
Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.
Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription
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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.