All matches

Alaves — Atletico Madrid, La Liga

Spain, La Liga

Alaves
1.7DLLWW
—
Atletico Madrid
3.2WWWLL
Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability
30%25%45%
AlavesMarket 4.3230%DrawMarket 3.8425%Atletico MadridMarket 1.9145%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Alaves30%23%3.324.32+6.9
XDraw25%26%4.053.84-1.3
2Atletico Madrid45%52%2.211.91-7.1

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.77book 1.72

No44%

ours 2.29book 2.02

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAlavesAtletico MadridCombined
Goals scored1.332.173.50
Conceded1.001.172.17
Corners9.78.89.3
Cards1.71.33.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

AlavesAtletico Madrid

Deportivo Alavés 30%, Club Atlético de Madrid 45%. The safest is “No draw” at 75%.

Deportivo Alavés 30%Draw 25%Club Atlético de Madrid 45%
1st half
32 · 41 · 27
2nd half
28 · 35 · 37

Bookmakers: 4.32 · 3.84 · 1.91

Both teams to score?
How many goals?
How many corners?
How many yellow cards?
How many shots?
How many fouls?
How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

70%1.34
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Alaves

  • awayAthletic Bilbao0:0
  • homeValencia0:1
  • awayRacing Santander1:2
  • homeOsasuna5:2
  • homeVillarreal1:0

Atletico Madrid

  • homeReal Madrid2:1
  • homeOsasuna4:0
  • awayReal Sociedad3:0
  • awayLiverpool1:2
  • awayAthletic Bilbao0:3

Head to head

  • 01/18/26La Liga0:1
  • 08/30/25La Liga1:1
  • 05/03/25La Liga0:0
  • 11/23/24La Liga1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Barcelona770031:721
2Atletico Madrid751116:716
3Real Betis75119:716
4Real Madrid750218:815
5Sevilla741210:913
6Alaves732211:611
7Deportivo La Coruna724110:810
8Real Sociedad73139:1310

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.