Defensor Sporting — Racing Montevideo, Primera División

Uruguay, Primera DivisiónOctober 23 at 11:00 PM

Defensor Sporting

1.7LLWLW

Racing Montevideo

2.2LLLDW

Team strength by Elo, 0 to 5What this means

Strength is the team’s Elo rating rescaled to 0–5 across all matches in the competition: it rises after wins over strong opponents and falls after losses to weak ones. The bar colour is the tier: red — weak, amber — below average, green — solid, blue — the strongest. The letters under the bar are the last five matches: W — win, D — draw, L — loss.

Outcome probability

30%28%42%

Defensor Sporting30%Draw28%Racing Montevideo42%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Defensor Sporting30%3.30—

XDraw28%3.60—

2Racing Montevideo42%2.39—

our modelmarket — implied by the bookmaker price

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.86

No46%

ours 2.17

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Goals and corners — with Premium

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Combos

Combos come with Premium: result and total, result and corners, both teams to score and total — probability, fair odds and the market comparison.

Combos — with Premium

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Confident answers

The line the model is most sure about — and how often such answers have come in.

Goals

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70%of such answers on goals came inlast 60 days · 1969 matches

Corners

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71%of such answers on corners came inlast 60 days · 1965 matches

Cards

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71%of such answers on cards came inlast 60 days · 1955 matches

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This is a probability, not a guarantee: roughly 3 answers in 10 don’t come in. Bookmaker odds on these lines are low — this block is about the model’s accuracy.

Why the model reads the match this way

Short answers to the key questions of the match. Tap a question to see the numbers by team and half.

Defensor SportingRacing Montevideo

Defensor Sporting Club 30%, Racing Club de Montevideo 42%. The safest is “No draw” at 73%.

Defensor Sporting Club 30%Draw 28%Racing Club de Montevideo 42%

1st half

25 · 45 · 30

2nd half

26 · 39 · 35

Both teams to score?

How many goals?

How many corners?

How many yellow cards?

How many shots?

How many fouls?

How many offsides?

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Total shots: Under 25.5

71%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDefensor SportingRacing MontevideoCombined

Goals scored1.330.672.00

Conceded1.501.172.67

Corners10.07.08.5

Cards2.83.26.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.